The St. Louis Cardinals seem to be rather serious about not repeating their 91-loss, last-place finish from 2023, as they’ve been among the most aggressive teams in the early days of free agency, signing two depth starters in Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn before landing one of the biggest prizes on the market this winter in starter Sonny Gray. Gray is coming off a 5 WAR season for the Minnesota Twins, and he finished second in the American League’s Cy Young Award balloting earlier this month.
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Cardinals sign Sonny Gray to 3-year deal: What it means for 2024 rotation
St. Louis’s pitching was the team’s real downfall in 2023, as they allowed 5.12 runs per game, better only than two teams that entered the year as non-contenders, Washington and Colorado. The Cardinals’ only starter to post an ERA below 3.50 was Jordan Montgomery, whom they traded to Texas at the deadline for two solid prospects; their only other starter below a 4.00 ERA was Steven Matz, who has still never qualified for the ERA title in any season of his career and didn’t pitch after mid-August due to a lat strain.
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They need innings, which Lynn and Gibson should provide, but they also need quality innings, and that’s where Gray comes in. His 2023 season was worth over 5 WAR in both systems, and while some of it, notably his very low home run rate (0.4 HR/9), probably isn’t sustainable going forward, there are reasons to believe he can continue to pitch at a high level thanks to the new shape on his slider and recent upticks in his fastball command and control. He threw 184 innings in 2023, topped only by Miles Mikolas among Cardinals pitchers (although Montgomery did get to that mark after the trade), and has generally been durable throughout his career despite concerns about his height that date back to when he was a top prospect in high school.
With the out-pitch slider, the high-spin four-seamer, the command he’s exhibited the past two years, and his overall athleticism, Gray is the kind of pitcher on whom I’d be willing to bet for a long-term deal. The Cardinals went for a higher AAV, $25 million a year, and got him on a three-year deal, which is on the shorter side for a starting pitcher of Gray’s caliber but reflects the fact that he’ll be 36 in the last year of the contract. I think it’s a great deal for the team and player, even acknowledging that predicting pitcher health is an errand even fools would disdain.
The Cardinals don’t appear to be done making moves, and they still need to address their crowded outfield and figure out shortstop for 2023 (I’m assuming Masyn Winn will start in Triple A, as his glove and arm are ready but his bat doesn’t seem to be), but with these signings and two starter prospects in Triple A in Gordon Graceffo and Michael McGreevy, I think they can say they’re done adding pitching.
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Kenta Maeda stays in the AL Central. (Nick Wosika / USA Today)The Detroit Tigers picked up another former Twins starter, right-hander Kenta Maeda, signing him to a two-year, $24 million contract that I think might undervalue him, even given his age and lack of durability.
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Tigers, RHP Kenta Maeda agree to 2-year deal
Maeda returned this April after missing 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, was awful at first, then went on the IL with a triceps strain for a couple of months. After he came back, he made 16 starts in which he had a 3.36 ERA/3.94 FIP over 88 1/3 innings with 103 strikeouts and 25 walks. If Maeda had done that for a full season, he’d be looking at $20-25 million a year, if not more. He hasn’t pitched that much in a season since 2019, when he was a starter/swingman for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Outside of his outstanding campaign in 2020 when he finished second in the AL Cy Young Award voting, he hasn’t pitched at the level of his second half of 2023 performance since his rookie year in MLB in 2016, so I’m not arguing he’ll just double his 2023 second half and be among the AL’s best starters. I am arguing that I think he can make 20-25 starts and be an above-average, 2-3 WAR pitcher, which would be an enormous help to the Tigers, whose lineup is starting to look pretty good but whose rotation right now comprises Tarik Skubal and four pitchers generated by AI.
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The Twins have now lost two starters from their 2023 rotation, including their No. 1 in name and in value, and at this point only have three true starters left on the 40-man roster: Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan. They have several former starters turned relievers, including Louie Varland (who was very homer-prone as a starter last year) and Jordan Balazovic (who hasn’t shown enough command to even be a good reliever yet), but if they want to contend again in a winnable AL Central, they’ll probably have to go add a starter from outside via trade or free agency. The good news, sort of, is that they have some position player depth from which to trade, at least enough to make one significant move for pitching if they choose to go that route.
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Joe Buck's vast broadcasting legacy owes its roots to Cardinals baseball
(Top photo of Sonny Gray: Jay Biggerstaff / USA Today)
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